The year 2020 will be marked by the pandemic we all have been experiencing. Its impact on the economy and on our well-being is not yet fully clear, but we may say that is already having a devastating effect on unemployment, economic growth, social inequalities and even on the individual, social and family balance of each and everyone of us.

I propose, however, that we adopt a different, more positive approach when looking at these current times. Winston Churchill once said: “a good crisis should never be wasted…” And we should bear this in mind to face these challenging times.

The year 2020 will also be marked by the so-called “digital acceleration”, whereby the process of technological transformation (the Fourth Industrial Revolution), which was already there, took a gigantic leap forward. Most of the published studies point to a massive technological adoption by both organisations and individuals in the last months, further adding that most companies are now convinced that this “digital acceleration” will be permanent, is here to stay and will not slow down after the expected disappearance of the pandemic.

Thus, there is an unstoppable and irreversible force that is changing our economy and some of the tenets we took for granted. It’s a structural change!

If we look at the recent Portuguese economic history we may conclude that some basic problems have hindered solid and sustainable growth. The numbers are crystal clear: since the beginning of the century, that is, since the full accession to the single currency, Portugal has experienced something very close to what we can qualify as a long and deep stagnation. All the aspirations and hopes that Europe would be there to help us propel the country and enable it to join the forerunners dissipated year after year. On the contrary, we are repeatedly overtaken by Eastern countries, which, despite the destructive decades behind the iron curtain, have managed to find their path to growth. Unlike Portugal.

We have the duty to admit that our development model is condemning us not to grow and to accumulate a debt that mortgages the future of the coming generations, driving away capital and investment and degrading the business environment and living conditions of citizens.

This model based on non-tradable goods, regime infrastructures and large (and small) public works probably had its merit as regards the modernisation of the country and the economic dynamism of some economic sectors. But this model has had its day. It brought with it stagnation, indebtedness and a weight of the State that overburdens the Portuguese with taxes.

Thus, in order to reverse this reality, we must start by acknowledging the need to change the economic paradigm. Portugal will not succeed if it does not find the boldness and ambition to expose itself to foreign competition. Even if this means harming, in the short term, those who systematically live on protected income.

But the current moment of disruption is an excellent opportunity for this structural transformation to take place. It is time for the country’s strategic focus to shift to innovative companies with the capacity to compete in the global market and to integrate the large value chains on an international scale.

The digital, green and circular economy is an economy based on new concepts and new balances that challenges the status quo, the routines, the traditions… That has innovation as its major beacon.

The massification of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, 5G connectivity, cloud or quantum computing, Big Data, blockchain or the Internet of Things is quickly making inroads. And all this will inevitably result in the need to do things differently, to do better every day. Static models with value chains both stable and perennial in time will no longer be competitive.

This is the time for innovation, to challenge the unknown and for creativity that adds value.

In order for Portugal to be able to take this structural leap it needs cultural change, political will and a sense of leadership. And this requires both strategy and implementation.

As a first step, there is an urgent need to understand where the basis for the creation of this new economic model lies, adapted to the new emerging reality; and the need to understand the pillars where companies, organizations and people will develop their ideas and business.

The future success of our economy will rest on two axes. First, on the technological infrastructure. Connectivity networks, the use of cloud platforms and access to open data will be absolutely critical to generate economic dynamics that favour investment, attract capital, competitiveness and growth.

And second, but not least, human capital. Our country has one of the least qualified populations in Europe. This is a huge competitive disadvantage. However, if we look at this crisis as an opportunity we may realise that this is the right time to reskill people (in its broadest sense: in English, we use the words skilling, reskilling and upskilling), the structural unemployed, the victims of lockdown brought by Covid-19, those who are still graduating, or those who, being employed, must renew skills and aptitudes.

Let us all learn how to take this opportunity for the sake of our future.