NEWS
SOME OF SPOTLIGHT COUNTRIES IN THE YEAR OF 2017 WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SET THE PLAN IN 2018.
UNITED STATES
The year of Donald Trump
Nearly one year since the start of his mandate, the election of Donald J. Trump remains one of the biggest events of the year as it marked the political life of the US and in the world. Despite some significant changes, particularly about the relationship with Russia, management of the situation in the Middle East and in Asia, e.g. in Syria and North Korea, things have changed significantly less than expected especially considering the number of key measures contained in his electoral program and based on where he managed, against all odds, to be elected the 45th President of the USA. Among his major failures are the wall that would separate the USA from Mexico, fight against terrorism and the end of ObamaCare. Among his successes it is worth highlighting the exceptional results in the financial sector and mainly in the technology sector.
NORTH KOREA AND SOUTH KOREA
Increased nuclear tension and impact on the world
The escalade of tension between both Koreas is leaving diplomacy on the verge of a nervous breakdown considering that both countries are nuclear powers and this situation involves also three most influential powers in the world: USA, China and Russia. Donald Trump has made clear that he does not accept North Korea military tests, holds Pyong-Yang responsible for an eventual escalade of this conflict and does exclude the possibility of military action by the USA. Putin, through Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian vice-minister for Foreign Relations, went on to say the alternative to a multilateral dialogue is an escalade of the conflict whose consequences he considered “catastrophic”.
CHINA
The Chinese economic miracle continues
China keeps making inroads in the world economy, having significantly increased its influence in all continents, particularly in Africa and in Europe, a destination of choice for its investments. This Asian giant was able to maintain internal political and social cohesion and is doing well in all sectors of the economy, with focus on the financial sector, retail and building and construction. First, the ongoing economic restructuring, second an industrial modernisation that may bring more value to what it produces and third, reduction of the role of state companies in key sectors of economy, are the main challenges for the new year.
VENEZUELA
A new powder keg in South America
After nearly two decades of “Bolivarian” power, first with Hugo Chávez and now with Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has sunken in a deep economic crisis which, combined with the rallies against the government, is putting the country on the verge of civil war. The inability to apply the income from the oil industry to diversify the economy, rampant unemployment, the flight of capital, difficulties in supplies and the country’s fragile productive structure are placing Venezuela economically on the brink of rupture politically increasingly isolated. The recent electoral dispute, which was there to approve a reinforcement in government powers was reject by both the opposition and most of the international community, reinforced the power of Maduro but, at the same time, radicalised those who oppose him.
BRAZIL
The road to presidential elections
From the left wing to the right wing, the contradictions and tensions that increased in Brazil in the last months may have an end in sight after the next presidential elections, scheduled for the coming year. With the country divided between PT supporters, the party of Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, and supporters of the impeachment that took away their power, Michel Temer now leads a government with low rate of popularity and which little margin of manoeuvre to undertake major reforms. After a true economic miracle in the last twenty years, erosion of PT and numerous corruption scandals, Brazil now hopes that, with the re-election of PT or the election of a new political figure, the country will be able to return to growth and to consolidate its economy and its role as the main economy in the American continent.
UNITED KINGDOM
What will happen after Brexit?
The truth is that little of what Brexit was meant to imply did not occur, thereby showing that the United Kingdom somehow seems to prefer to maintain what holds it together unified with the European system. Despite the increased restrictions to non-European citizens the truth is that borders remain open to people and goods from Europe, European citizens have retained their rights in the territory and continue to be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The UK wants to keep its feet in Europe at a time when it is faced with the danger of disintegration, something that London wants to avoid but which Brexit reinforced, and which is particularly serious in Ireland and Scotland.
CAPE VERDE
The most mature African democracy
Cape Verde has been gradually growing and consolidating its position as one of the most stable countries in Africa with a mature democracy with low level of social conflicts. The country’s economy is growing, especially in tourism, because of foreign investment and the capacity of the country to attract mass tourism that now prefers this archipelago instead of some destinations that have become less attractive, such as Egypt or Tunisia. It is still a country with challenges to overcome: retain its population, especially the more specialized and more educated; diversify its economy, which is very dependent from development aid and from foreign currency sent by the diaspora or obtained from tourism; and reduce social inequalities. Specialists consider that Cape Verde is the country best positioned within its regional context to achieve its goals and to follow a successful path of peace and development.
RUSSIA
The bear awakens
Russia survived the economic crisis of 2008 like almost no other country, with a performance just below that of China. The country’s economic and financial indexes have catapulted it to the leadership of the world economy. The Russian success, albeit firmly anchored in the oil industry, is currently not confined to this sector alone and the economic strength of the country helped reinforcing the influence of his government, led by Putin, and Russia now plays a higher role in the international arena. It is worth remembering that at the turn of the millennium the country was in dire straits are regards it coffers to the extent that Moscow was even forced to renegotiate the payment of foreign debt and to devalue the rouble. Starting from a very unfavourable position, Russia was able to boost its Gross Domestic Product and, despite criticism about Putin’s authoritarianism, the truth is that the country now counts as one of the most powerful and seems to have overcome the tensions of independence in various regions along its border, particularly in Chechnya the region that was at the head of these tensions.
